Currency Update: Pressure on the Pound Continues

Currency Update: Pressure on the Pound Continues. On the 20th March, the government has confirmed that Theresa May intends to trigger Article 50 next Wednesday, March 29th, which will be the beginning of the end of the UK’s EU membership. With the triggering of article 50 now confirmed for March 29th, pressure on GBP remains high. GBP fell during yesterday’s trading session against EUR and USD after testing two week highs. The market will look closely at CPI inflation data. Yearly Inflation figures are predicted to rise from 1.8% to 2.1%. This would push the figure above the Bank of England’s 2% target rate and could be supportive of a reversal in monetary policy from the BofE’s dovish stance. However, in last month’s inflation report, the Bank did outline their expectation that inflation would “overshoot” as a result of a weaker pound, before stabilising in 2018. Last week saw some action on the currency markets, with a US interest rate rise. Furthermore, one member of the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee also voting for a rate hike in the UK. There is a strong correlation between Interest rates and currency values. In the US we saw the dollar weaken despite the hike; as the Federal Reserve played down the prospect of many more raises this year. The Pound was also boosted by the MPC; where a surprise vote from member Kristen Forbes for an interest rate rise here, gave sterling some strength.

Opportunity For International Real Estate Investors

The falling pound is creating a wave of opportunity for international property investors. Overseas investors buying in dollar pegged currencies, can swoop in and pick up UK properties at a relative bargain. Therefore, boosting market activty and transaction volumes. International Investment should remain strong as the UK enters the 2 year negotiation to leave the EU. Investors continue to seek safe haven investments to bolster their portfolio, the UK property markets strong fundamentals and high yields continue to attract property buyers.